Electric vehicles (EVs) are becoming increasingly popular due to their cost effectiveness, eco-friendliness, and plain ol’ fun. As battery technology continues to advance and the demand for sustainable transportation options increases, the EV market is expected to grow even more rapidly over the coming years.
Here are some things to get excited about in the next five years.
Battery technology
The current state of EV battery technology (and cost!) is leaps and bounds ahead of where it was just five or ten years ago, with many modern EV ranges exceeding 300 miles. However, in the next five years, we can expect to see further advancement – and not just in range. Charging speeds will improve, as will the adoption of battery chemistries that are “happier” at higher states of charge. While most NCA- and NMC-based lithium batteries on the market today prefer being charged to 80% on a habitual basis, manufacturers such as Tesla and Ford are phasing in new chemistries like Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) – and these batteries don’t mind being charged to 100% every day. They are also more resistant to frequent fast charging, since the LFP chemistry is less sensitive to high voltage. Researchers are also eager to develop entirely new electrolytes that perform better in extreme temperatures, with the goal of negating some of the current issues encountered in such conditions.
Several pilot programs are also underway to explore and test new battery technologies that could potentially revolutionize the industry. For instance, solid-state batteries are one of the most promising alternatives to traditional lithium-ion batteries, offering higher energy density and faster charging times. A number of automakers, including Toyota and BMW, are currently investing in research and development of solid-state batteries, with plans to introduce them in their vehicles as soon as 2025.
AI Integration
Artificial intelligence developments have the potential to revolutionize many industries, with automotive being an obvious choice. AI is likely to have the greatest impact on electric vehicles, given their integration of more advanced technologies, including radar systems for autonomous driving.
Autonomous driving and driver assist features have already made significant strides in recent years, with many modern vehicles coming equipped with features such as lane departure warnings, automatic emergency braking, and adaptive cruise control. However, most cars are still limited to level 2 autonomy, which means the driver has to be engaged and hands-on. AI is fundamental to the development of more advanced systems, enabling vehicles to evaluate their environment, make decisions, and navigate with minimal human intervention. Additionally, these processes involve machine learning algorithms, computer vision, and advanced sensors. Mercedes-Benz recently received the first official level 3 certificate, which is an exciting development; it means that its autonomous driving system can allow the driver to do things like use the infotainment system while the car is driving.
Companies such as Waymo, Cruise and Tesla had long been at the forefront of the movement, although with differing levels of success. Cruise, a GM-backed company, has offered fully autonomous rides in San Francisco since 2021. Waymo, which is owned by Alphabet, has had autonomous rideshare services in Arizona since 2020, San Francisco since 2022, and near-term plans in Los Angeles. On the other hand, Tesla’s “full self driving” system, long the technology’s vanguard, was officially censored by the NHTSA this year due to safety concerns, and there are now petitions to force the company to change the name to something that better reflects its level 2 limitations.
Newer developments into automated driving software abound. Ford, after shuttering its autonomous driving bid in 2022, recently announced a reinvestment into the technology with Latitude AI, which will build to level 3 using the current level 2, BlueCruise. GM also announced an upgrade to its level 2 system called Ultima Cruise.
Advanced predictive maintenance systems utilizing AI are also on the horizon, using vehicle sensors to predict potential component failures before they occur. Companies like Tesla and GM are already incorporating AI-driven predictive maintenance into their EVs. Data monitoring, specifically for the battery and BMS, are key for the continued adoption of EVs. EVs are particularly sensitive to changes in temperature and driving conditions, requiring advanced algorithms to optimize battery performance and longevity by managing charge and discharge cycles, thermal conditions, and energy usage patterns. Additionally, AI algorithms have the ability to analyze driving behavior, traffic conditions, and weather to provide precise range estimates, reducing range anxiety for EV owners, a key element of EV ownership.
Finally, as V2G technology becomes more prevalent, AI becomes extremely useful for the management of charging schedules based on grid demand, electricity prices, and user habits, optimizing charging times and reducing costs.
Charging Advancements
To ensure mass adoption of EVs, on-the-road charging needs to be comparable to refueling of a gasoline tank in terms of time and convenience. Additionally, as manufacturers roll out new EV models with larger batteries and more range, demand for ultra-fast public charging is likely to increase. This type of charging results in brief yet intense power bursts, which can potentially cause stress to the grid. Studies have indicated that the increasing number of EVs will likely require electricity companies to find solutions to balance the load on the grid while still providing adequate power to vehicles.
One promising solution is power boosting, or grid boosting. The booster charges from the existing grid and then can deliver this energy at a much higher rate, permitting ultra-fast charging. These devices help balance the demand on the grid without requiring grid upgrades. Previous generation power boosters utilized batteries as a way to store energy, but had several limitations, including limited number of charge/discharge cycles, and a poor C-Rate. Newer power boosters utilize flywheels, which circumvent many of the drawbacks to using batteries.
Another solution, with additional uses, is bidirectional charging. Bidirectional charging is a technology that allows EVs to not only charge from the grid but also to supply power back to your house, a device, or the grid! This technology has the potential to shore up the aging electric grid, allow schools and hospitals to provide their own backup power, and nonprofits to raise funds by selling energy to the grid. These technologies are also known as Vehicle To Home (V2H) and Vehicle To Grid (V2G) or Vehicle to Load (V2L) if you’re powering isolated devices. The tech is still developing, but can already be found in the newest Hyundai Ioniq 5, KIA EV6 and Niro EV, Nissan LEAF, and Ford F-150 Lightning models, to name a few.
If you buy a so-called “transfer switch,” and have it installed by a licensed electrician, you can power parts of your home during power outages. Since EV batteries tend to be so large, your average EV could supply an entire household with power for upwards of 2-3 days if your home is otherwise without power. However, since this technology is still new, it is still cost prohibitive for many people, and there is no standard setup.
Select local utilities already offer incentives for using your vehicle’s battery for balancing the electrical grid’s load during times of high demand or low renewable production; these programs will expand as the technology matures. In 2020, Nissan announced a partnership with EDF Energy and the National Grid in the UK to explore the potential of using Nissan LEAF batteries for grid balancing. In 2022, Duke Energy announced a partnership with Ford to enable consenting owners of Ford EVs to sell energy back to the grid. As the adoption of EVs continues to grow, we can expect to see more utilities and governments incentivizing bidirectional charging technology to encourage the development of a more sustainable and resilient energy system.
Other advancements to charging infrastructure are also foreseeable, including solid-state transformers, energy trading systems as large-scale battery storage increases, and additional advancements to vehicle infrastructure, including shifting from a 400V battery architecture to 800V, as seen in the Hyundai Ioniq 6.
Lastly, wireless charging has recently emerged as a promising technology that can increase convenience and safety for charging electric vehicles, particularly in urban areas. Wireless EV charging, also known as inductive charging, works by using magnetic resonance and a charging pad, similar to wireless phone charging. When a coil in a receiver underneath the car aligns with a coil in the charging pad, the receiver captures that energy and delivers it to the car’s battery. Currently, this type of charging is limited to level 2 charging speeds, and is still relatively expensive. Several companies, including WiTricity and Qualcomm, have already developed systems and started integrating them into existing models as a proof of concept.
Several years ago, BMW rolled out the BMW 530e PHEV Inductive Charging Pilot Program, in which consumers could lease a vehicle equipped with wireless charging. In Los Angeles Country, the Antelope Valley Transit Authority uses wireless charging systems made to help power its fleet of electric buses. Lastly, in 2022, SAE International finalized the first standard for stationary wireless charging for light-duty vehicles, an important first step to the mass adoption of such technology.
Battery swapping
Battery swapping technology has the potential to revolutionize the EV industry by addressing one of the key concerns of consumers: the time it takes to recharge a battery. With battery swapping, drivers can quickly and easily exchange their depleted battery for a fully charged one, eliminating the need for lengthy charging times and personal charging hardware. However, improvements in public, level 3 charging times have raised questions about the need for battery swapping. There are two use cases that battery swapping may help:
- A mostly untapped market of EV drivers who live in apartments or multi-unit dwellings and do not have access to home charging.
- Electrified buses and trucks, which have strict schedules and larger packs that take much longer to recharge.
Battery swapping has been developed and tested by numerous worldwide manufacturers. Tesla and Renault both tried it and shelved the technology, reportedly due to lack of customer interest. The companies may have also realized that the capital expenditure to build large-scale battery swapping facilities was greater than that to build fast chargers, and that there would be limitations on vehicle design, such as with the Model Y’s planned structural battery pack. Furthermore, in Europe and the US today, most EV drivers do have access to home charging, meaning that it is painless and cheap to recharge overnight.
However, China-based battery and EV manufacturer NIO has been testing the technology; they’ve built over 1,250 battery swapping stations across China and aim to add 1,000 more in 2023. All it takes is thirty dollars to swap a battery out for a freshly-charged one at a NIO battery swap station. In the US, this could be cheaper than a fast charge! A Taiwan-based company, Gogoro, has a similar battery swapping system for electric scooters. There’s a chance a market for this may re-emerge in the US if success is widespread overseas and is seen as an option to further accelerate EV adoption, especially in locations where home charging is not feasible.
